Real Madrid’s 2024/25 UEFA Champions League campaign went off to a horror start which left them in danger of crashing out of the group stages for the first time ever.
Thankfully, the La Liga champions avoided that disaster thanks to a commanding 5-1 win over Salzburg last week. However, they are still in uncharted territory. The new format of the UCL sees eight of the top 24 teams gain direct entry into the Round of 16, while those below will enter a playoff round to complete the bracket.
📌 Real Madrid-Girona will take place on Sunday 23 February at 16:15 CET! pic.twitter.com/UYEAfRg4rN
— Real Madrid C.F. 🇬🇧🇺🇸 (@realmadriden) January 27, 2025
As things stand, Real Madrid will most likely qualify for the latter.
Their losses to LOSC Lille, AC Milan, and Liverpool left them in danger of finishing outside the top 24 altogether. So, Real Madrid will take this, even if it means playing two additional games to get into the knockout phases of a tournament they have won five times in the last 10 years.
At the same time, Real Madrid can still qualify for the Round of 16 directly, although it will require a lot to go their way.
How can Real Madrid enter the Round of 16 directly?
First and foremost, Real Madrid must defeat Brest on Wednesday night by at least a three-goal margin. All 18 games will kick off simultaneously, making it the busiest Champions League matchday in history.
Eyes on the Real Madrid bench, however, will be glued to results from elsewhere—a task likely left to the substitutes. Carlo Ancelotti’s side need a perfect storm of outcomes: Atalanta losing to Barcelona, Aston Villa dropping points against Celtic, Monaco drawing or losing to Inter, and Feyenoord earning exactly one point against Lille.
Even then, direct progression to the next stage isn’t guaranteed. Bayern Munich, Juventus, and Borussia Dortmund must also face difficult nights for the 15-time European champions to have a fighting chance.
Can they be knocked out?
With 12 points from 7 games, Real Madrid’s spot in the playoffs is already booked. Even if they lose against Brest, they will progress.
However, it will affect their overall ranking in the standings, which means they would be paired against a tougher opponent in the playoffs, and if they qualify, also in the Round of 16.
Considering the form Real Madrid are in, however, they are the heavy favorites to get the better of the Ligue 1 side. Kylian Mbappe, who scored his first hat-trick in white away at Real Valladolid last Saturday, has a great record against Brest.
Last time Kylian Mbappé played against Brest away. 😂pic.twitter.com/ETajceQMxN
— KMZ (@KM10Zone) January 27, 2025
The Frenchman scored nine goals and provided one assist in his 10 games against the club during his time as PSG’s talisman. He has also never lost to them.
